It has been a while since I did not update my website. Main reason was the lack of market I am interesting in.
It is also because I had many up and downs and I needed to refocus on my betting before being able to share with you.
Everything started well in May getting one of my best month 🤩 I managed my picks and my pregame & in-play stakes in a very serious way. I started with small stake before the game starts on games I expected a margin above 2 goals and I was increasing my stakes until a maximum amount I defined and this all along the game when it was worthy.
However it ended very badly in the last two days when I tilted after I increased in an uncontrolled way my staking pre-game, neglecting all the rules I have set ! 🤯
After that a long and difficult period has started for me 😵
Even if I am used to bet only a few times a month, when such a long period without big match comes, I often fail. My model has many criteria and most of games I’be bet on did match most of the them. But many of them also had one criterion that should have led to a “No Bet”. Most of the time it happened when I was putting aside the bad form or the lack of motivation of the fav because of the weakness of their opponent.
Perfect example was when I shared with you a bet on Switzerland market : Grasshopper vs Chiasso – Grasshopper -3 @2 on singbet 🇨🇭
I was confident to offer that bet because I had information about players leaving Chiasso (+ only 3 players on the bench) which made this team even weaker than it was before. Plus, they were facing the leader of the division that was in great form (5-0 w, 1-1, 3-1 w, 4-1 w, 2-3 w, 4-0 w).
This seamed so obvious that I did not push further the analysis. Based on this, I was expecting a 5-0 win : 2 goals above the spread 👌 I was confident and bet with Medium / High stake.
However having a great information on a game does not make it a great bet ! All the other key criteria shall be considered. And here I was blinded by the weakness of the opponent and the form of Grasshopper and did not analyze other criteria.
Indeed 2 keys criteria were not ok : the motivation of the fav and their line-up. Grasshopper was not eager of getting points in that game. They were on top of the table – even loosing this game would not have changed their ranking. Of course they entered this game to win – it would have allowed them to extend even more the gap with the second ranked. But I am convinced that you do not have at all the same appetite to score goals and defense in not 100% focus during 90 minutes when you are already top of the table compared to when you are 2nd and looking to get closer to the top to win the championship.
Plus they were playing without one of their best player, the one who made the most assists (2 times more than the other).
In those conditions, betting on the fav to win by 3 goals difference with good confidence was not a good option. And I got a well-deserved loss here 😑(Grasshopper won 2-1, scoring their second goal of the game in the last minutes).
They are 2 quotes I have found interesting in the pasts months that I love and that will help me to evolve as a tipster :
- “If you want something you’ve never had, you must be willing to do something you’ve never done”, Thomas Jefferson
For those who are following me since several years, I always follow the same path : I have great periods of betting with amazing bets and after that, all of the sudden, I enter a dark period that can last months ! ⏳ I come back analyzing perfectly my mistakes, being able to understand exactly what went good in the past, what went bad also, and what to learn from all of this to be able not to repeat the same mistakes. I do that great.
What I am missing is to apply those lessons learnt in my betting routine of everyday 🤕 Sometimes betting looks so easy that I forget how everything can change in a short amount of time. I neglect my rules and I end up betting a lot on games that I barely analyzed.
If I want to be able to finally be very successful in a field that I love so much (betting on sports events) and if I want to reach one day my very ambitious objectives (that look very far away at the moment) I must be willing to do things that I have never done.
To achieve that I decided to start having a routine and write down everyday key information about every bet I take ✍️ which leads me to the second quote below.
- “I dont know what i think until i write about it”, Joan Didion
As I said earlier, I am good at analyzing my behavior once the month is finished, but I fail to do it every day when it comes to placing bets.
It comes from the fact that I am spending much less time to bet than I used to do years ago. This makes me take shortcuts way to often in my games analysis : the worst losses I endure occur on games I plan a significant goal margin based on a great information or awful results & form of the weakest team but where I neglect the poor form or the missing players of the fav. The worse is that it is the kind of game I often loose control in my staking management 😪
To help me realize how interesting a game really is I have decided to use to small notebook and write everyday 3 elements :
- The amount of my bankroll,
- The value of the stakes I allow for small / medium / high confidence bets,
- My analysis of the game.
The format of the notebook allows me to have it with me everywhere at any time. I know everyday my stakes limit and the reason why I decide to place a bet or skip it (based on which criterion).
I am convinced that writing down my thoughts each day will help me a lot to prevent significant loss to occur in a short period of time !
I know also that it will be difficult at first to get used to do that every day, doing that on every single game I am very interested in (considering also the short amount of time I dedicate to betting) but I have heard that it takes 21 days for something new to become a habit 🙂 and I am sure that this is the best way to achieve something I have never had and that I dream of.
4 months left in 2020
The question is now : What about the rest of the year ? 🤷♂️ There are 4 months left and many things can happen !
My first priority is to make a habit of defining clearly my maximum stakes everyday and writing down in my notebook my analysis of games I am the most interested in.
My second objective is to be profitable 4 months in a row. And depending on opportunities that occur, take the most of them and reach the highest profit possible ! 📈
I am used to bet mostly on very unbalanced game and Covid period making teams play sometimes every 3 days make it difficult to expect the favorite to push during the 90 minutes of the game to score goals. They also rotate the squad even more. But this situation also create opportunities and I must have, more than ever, the discipline to wait for them !
If I target a great bet in advance I will share it with you on this website or on Twitter & Telegram 👌
I will also try to be more active on Twitter, sharing with you information on games and also small bets that I place.
Next review to come beginning of October 👋