April 2020 review : + 2,275 €

3rd month of my adventure that I started in February and 2nd month of profit in a row !

I end this month with kind of the same feeling than end of March. In fact I reached a far bigger profit mid of April but then I made bad decisions that made me reduced my winnings.

It is something I have to keep working on in the future despite all the effort I already put into that. But well.. I got twice more profit I expected this month so I also have to learn to be satisfied with what I get :)

With 4,369 euros profit 3 months after I started, I am above my global objective at this stage (+ 1,369 euros).

With 8 months to go, I almost reached 1/3 of my objective for this year (4,369 over 15 000 euros).

It is also a great result considering the poor offer of this month due to coronavirus crisis. I have still been able to find great values in small leagues which offered great limits thanks to pinnacle and particularly singbet.

My main bet was indeed from Belarus reserves when Dinamo Minsk faced Gorodeya. Dinamo Minsk finished 2nd last year and are aiming to reach the first position this year. They got 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 games this season and faced Gorodeya that already condeded 8 goals so far this season and that had a terrible run last season with big defeats (7-2, 11-0, 8-0, several times 4-0,…). I was expecting a big gap between those 2 teams (~ 0-4 FT) but the pre-game line for the asian handicap (-2.25) was not giving me much margin. Plus, the lack of information on that league and on these teams made me wait the in-play to confirm that it was going to be a one-sided game.

D. Minsk started the game slowly but at some point Gorodeya stoped being dangerous and D. Minsk multiplied the attempts on goal. I entered the market on the 25/30th minute by betting small stake on asian handicap -1.75 which was giving me a margin of 2 goals compared to my expected score.

D. Minsk got their first goal of the game after 33 minutes (0-1). Having just broke the deadlock and continuing having much attempts, I raised my global stake on this game to medium by staking on line -2 (0-1).

D. Minsk scored the second goal right before half-time making it 0-2. At that time my first bet was already half-won, and my second bet was almost refunded already. But an unexpected goal from Gorodeya would have made me lose all my bets. That is the reason why I decided not to add more money at half-time.

Second half has resumed, D. Minsk continued to be very dangerous and they made it 0-4 on the 61th and 65th minute. At that moment the 2 bets I took earlier were already a win with a significant margin of 2 goals. D. Minsk kept attacking and were eager to score more. Line offered in play right after the 4th goal was -1 (0-4) @2.11 which was low compared to the one-sided game I was following. That is the reason why I increased my stake to reach High stake on this game.

D. Minsk scored 2 goals in 2 minutes (70 and 71th) and secured a comfortable win (0-6 FT) that should have seen even more goals in the last 15 minutes. D. Minsk ended the game having shot 37 times (20 on target) while Gorodeya shot only twice (off target).

Enough of the good things. I also got bad runs of course. There are 2 games on which I lost a significant amount of money.

The first one comes from the same league : Belarus reserves. A different team from Minsk which made a pretty descent season last year was facing a team that started the season with 4 defeats in 5 games. I was expecting a 0-3 win of Minsk so I started well the game by betting only small stake on line -1.25 during first half when Minsk was clearly the better team.

Minsk scored the first goal of the game after 25 minutes (0-1). The line for the asian handicap in the second half was excellent : -1 (0-1) while it was a one-sided game. This one-sided game plus the low line for the ah made me increase my stake until medium/high. But despite having 23 attempts on goal (11 on target) Minsk did not succeed to score another goal. Game ended 0-1 and I lost all my bets.

My main mistake here was for me to increase too much my stake while there was no margin at all between my expected score and the bets I was taking. It is a key point I will be 100% more focus in the future.

The second one is from Tajikistan – I simply placed pre-game a stake that was way too high compared to the information I had. I was expecting an unbalanced game while the line offered for the asian handicap was only -0.5. In fact the in-play showed that this game was more balanced than I expected and it ended by a loss. Loosing that game was not a problem, but this loss should not have been that high if I strictly followed my new staking plan. But this is a new strategy I just put in place and it will take a bit of time until I manage it perfectly. The good point to notice is that it did not happen much in April :)

In conclusion I would say that April was a very good month and it had potential for even better ! My initial objective of reaching 15,000 € of profit after 11 months seamed already very challenging before the coronavirus crisis started so it will now be another level difficult even if several leagues may restart in the next months.

I am trying to take the most of this difficult period : it gives me more time to analyse games and to make the right decisions when picking my bets.

I am going to work even harder in May to increase my bankroll and select the best games that would allow me to reach my expected monthly profit of 1,500 €.

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