March 2020 review : + 4,154 €

Second month of the adventure ends with a good profit !

Even though this profit is really high and makes me bounce back quickly into my objective, this month left me a with a bittersweet feeling. In fact there were many amazing games and I could not take full benefit from them because of the way I managed my stakes.

In 5 days, from the 7th to the 11th of march I was already sitting on an amazing profit of 5,598 euros. Main bets were from U19 Bundesliga (Germany) and from Copa Libertadores. I was full of confidence for these games and I did not get any stress. For these 2 games I used 2 different strategies of betting that I will discuss below.

First game was “Wolfsbourg U19 vs Niendorfer TSV U19”. I had targeted this game since a few days already and I spent 3 of my 5 hours in the train to the Alps getting more and more information. It allowed me to understand why the bookmaker was offering such a line for this game and why he was wrong. The line for this game was -3 and my expected score was 6 or 7-0. Bet was matching all the criteria of my betting model. Plus, there was a significant margin (x2) between the expected score of the bookmaker and mine. That is why I went MEDIUM (stake) pre-game on this one. When game had started Wolfsburg U19 went 1-0 quickly with great in-play statistics. This confirmed my expectation of a one-sided game and since the margin I planed was large I decided to increase my stake to HIGH (taking -3 AH (1-0)). Wolfsburg U19 won the game 6-0 (4-0). They shot 29 times vs 1 for their opponents, 15 on target to 0, 14 off target to 0, 17 corners to 0. All major asian bookmakers were offering this bet (pregame and in-play) and pin88 & singbet were offering several thousands of euros (per click).

I adopted another staking strategy for the second game (River Plate vs Binacional). I knew that this game had a lot of potential and that River Plate could win with at least 4 or 5 goals difference. It was matching many of my criteria but some were difficult to assess. That is the reason I went only SMALL pre-game on -2.75 AH line. At Half-Time River Plate was dominating easily the game, winning 1-0, having missed 2 penalties. The in-play was confirming my initial analysis I decided to increase my stake to MEDIUM (with a bet on -1.75 AH (1-0 HT)). River Plate score 2 fast goals in the second half and was winning 3-0 after 58 minutes. I continued watching the game and pressure was getting more and more intense on their opponent which was getting more and more weak along the game. Around the 65th/70th minute, while my MEDIUM stake was already a WIN, I decided to increase my global stake to HIGH, taking -1 AH (3-0). Binacional finally collapsed after 74 minutes and River Plate scored 5 goals in the last 16 minutes winning the game 8-0.

In only a few days I had won 5 times the profit I expected for this month without taking much risk thanks to a huge pre-game analysis work and a great staking management.

Unfortunately this was ruined very fast by forgetting all this great work, without any consideration about the staking management. Same mistake that left me with a loss of 2 000 euros in February. I went HIGH one time and MEDIUM several times on games that looked unbalanced but for which information were neither available nor matching one or several of my criteria.

These losses are difficult to handle. So much work and great betting opportunities ruined by neglecting all the basics. This happened last month already and it happened again in march. This is ridiculous to think I can reach my very ambitious objective of winning 200 000 euros in 5 years by keeping doing the same mistake. It can not happen anymore. I could have ended this month with a 10 000 euros profit otherwise ; almost reaching half of my objective of …. this year ! And it also brought me frustration and unnecessary stress.

I had to make a significant change in my daily betting routine.

I started analyzing deeply the great way I managed the first part of the month and what went wrong the week after. The issue is not to pick up wrong bets. It is all about the staking management : it has to be adapted to the game configuration.

In fact, for my 2 first HIGH stake bets of the month I used 2 different staking strategies and each of them was specific to the game configuration :

  • The game for which I had all the information available and all the criteria were ok, I went MEDIUM pre-game and I increased to HIGH stake when the in-play confirmed my initial analysis (and there was still a significant margin between the current score and my expected score).
  • The other game I had all the information available but I had difficulties to assess all the criteria of my betting model. So I went SMALL stake pre-game, increased to MEDIUM when the in-play confirmed the large score I expected and even increased to HIGH stake when my MEDIUM bet was already won, game was still one-sided with many (many many) attempts while in-play line was low (-1 at 3-0 after 65/70 minutes).

Applying this strategy to the games I lost the most money on would not have prevented me from loosing money, but it would have made me save a lot of money by going only small pre-game (due to the lack of information or missing criteria of my model) and not increasing more in-play due to the fact it resulted in more balanced game that I expected.

After loosing the profit I made initially, I reached a profit of more than 4,000 euros by betting on very unbalanced games (mostly friendly) for which I did not have much information except the huge gap of division between both teams and their last friendly games results which made me confident in a potential high score. Missing a lot of information on those games (especially line-up) I decided to go only SMALL stake pre-game. I increased to MEDIUM stake when my initial bet was already ok and the in-play confirmed me the one-sided game I expected. For some of them I even went HIGH stake when my MEDIUM stake was also already won and the in-play was still showing the one-sided game (with a low AH line).

From now on I will always follow this super simple staking management depending on the game configuration I am betting on. It will prevent me from huge losses on games that do not deserve MEDIUM or HIGH stakes.

This is a process I will strictly follow before each bet I take:

  1. Which configuration of game is it ? (all information available ? info matching all my betting model criteria ? …)
  2. Depending on game configuration :
    1. what is my initial stake level ? (no stake, small, medium, high – % of my bankroll).
    2. what is the maximum stake I can bet on this event (including in-play) ?
    3. then, depending on the in-play, decide whether or not I raise my initial stake.

The fact that this process is simple makes the staking management easier and super fast to apply on any kind of games, even those I see last minute for which I am missing much information.

In the following month there will be a very limited amount of games available. Let’s see how I can still manage to make some profit out of it while also continuing to share several bets with you !

In march I offered you 3 MEDIUM stake bets on my telegram channel. I am on a series of 4 MEDIUM/HIGH stake bets WON in a row. You can join for free the Telegram channel at any moment :

Below is an overview of my current results compared to my initial objectives:

Leave a Reply