First month of the adventure and already many things happened ! Unfortunately this adventure started with a loss of 2,060 euros, far behind the profit of 1,000 euros I expected. Probably to test my ability to reach my objectives and to test my motivation
It began the best possible way with a significant win of 1,500 € on Brazilian market with a game I was planning a good margin between my expected score and the line for the asian handicap offered by the bookmaker. But since I did not have all information on this game I preferred that my initial stake be small. My team scored fast and the huge domination confirmed the high score I was expecting. I waited that my initial bet was covered before adding stake on the in-play asian handicap line. Finally game ended 0-8 and my first big win of the month was already there !
Unfortunately I did not take advantage of this amazing start and picked bad games that were all very unbalanced on paper but that did not deserve the stake I risked on them.
The perfect example is Portmore United vs Cruz Azul game in Concacaf Champions League. There is a huge gap of quality between those two teams that made me go with confidence on Cruz Azul -2. Quite a small line for a game that could easily end with 4 or 5 goals difference ! I went with Medium Stake pre-game but raised until High Stake on this one when I saw the implication of players and the big attempts they had in the first 20 minutes of the game. This respected my initial strategy not to put my entire stake pre-game and wait for in-play to raise it. However, the huge level difference between both teams made me ignore two key criteria: motivation and line-up. Concacaf Champions League is played with two legs: one away ; one home. So obviously the motivation of Cruz Azul players was not the highest for this first game. Plus the line-up from Cruz Azul was very weak and they clearly fielded an inexperience team with the majority of players that did not play much this season. Cruz Azul conceded a goal in second half but managed to win 1-2 after scoring two goals in the additional time.
Another example of wrong bet I took was a friendly between Ayia Napa and FK Ufa. I did not had time to analyze that game and only saw it in play when Ufa was already winning 0-5. I went with medium stake on -3 asian handicap since on paper the quality difference between both teams was enormous. Ayia Napa is a weak team from second division of Cyprus. And FK Ufa is one team from Russian first division. In fact in-play statistics were showing an incredible domination from the Russian team with 15 shots (80% on target). FK Ufa still had an incredible number of attempts during the rest of the game but did not manage to score a single goal for the rest of the game. One of the mistake here was to play with Medium stake instead of Small stake on such a high line with already a high score sheet. I should have gone with small stake only. But the main mistake was that the that I did not take a minimum of time to analyze more deeply the game made me miss a key information that FK Ufa already played a game the same day and they did not field a strong squad for this game.
Hopefully there were also super strong bets. I got the chance to share one with you on my website (http://www.fabienbetting.com/?p=1925). The big information was that Liverpool UR was playing at home a Conmebol Sudamericana game against a team that had been relegated in second division of Venezuelan soccer due to financial issues they had last season. All their key players had to leave the club. They lost first leg 0-3 already, with a huge domination from Liverpool URU that fielded a strong team for the second leg too. The bet I offered was Liverpool URU -2.5 ; game easily ended 5-0 (3-0 after 52 minutes).
As a summary, February was a difficult month. Many unbalanced games were offered but only a couple of them worthed medium or high stake. The bets I won the more money were on games I spent much time to analyze without neglecting any of my criterion. When I lost the more money I was usually going directly medium stake on games that looked very unbalanced due to many criteria but that failed because basic info like line-up… That’s also the problem of not doing that activity full time. Sometimes my analysis is done too fast due to lack of time and I take a bet without having gone deep in each aspect of it just because I do not want to miss an opportunity. This cannot happen several times a month when you have very ambitious objectives like I do.
My short time objective is to fix that issue in March. I still allow myself to bet on games that seem very unbalanced but it will remain a low stake as long as not every criterion matches my model – I will always start with low stake and if my initial bet is quickly covered in-play and that I estimate it still worth it then I may add another small stake and go almost medium on the whole game ; but it must follow this plan.
I know that in March I will still find amazing games for us to bet. And I also know that it will end with profit only if I manage better my stakes between the games that completely match my model and the other that are worth betting because they represent a high value but that no do match perfectly all the criteria I defined.