My new approach of betting

The Universe of professional betting

The only way of being a profitable tipster in the long term is to keep having an edge on the market. It means estimating the probabilities of each bet more accurately than the bookmaker. The difference between the probability estimated by the tipster and the one of the bookmaker represents the value of the bet.

Finding value is the daily job of 2 professional betting companies that operate in London; and they are making millions each year with it.

These companies are Starlizard and Smartodds. They aim at a return of 2 or 3%, which means making a small profit margin on a large number of bet at stake. In other words, they are turning over billions of pounds to get millions of profit. The key to their success is consistency.

To achieve that goal they employ hundreds of people who master different specialties and that all have in common their passion for sports.

First, there are the Sport Analysts, at least one person covering each competition / country all over the world. They are specialists who follow closely each week of competition, write pre-game and post-game analyses and who are able to rate the level and form of each player making it a key information once line-up is available. 

Another team that works independently from the sports analysts is the Quantitative Analysts team. These are mathematicians who use complex statistical models based on thousands of data the company also records on each game to generate their own odds.

Traders receive key data from both teams and take the decision to bet depending also on what the market is offering.

I find this world fascinating! I got the chance to enter the workplace of Smartodds once and it has been an amazing experience.

I do not have at my disposal hundreds of analysts or smart mathematicians or even millions to bet with. It’s only me betting on my own, during my free time, mainly with my phone as my only tool.

My place in the betting world

I do not have their strength I will never play in their category but I am sure my work allows me to become a professional bettor. That is also what I want to prove through my website.

I do have the same strong passion for sports and betting than those people. I spend most of my free time to follow and watch games from all over the world at any time in the day and I just love it. I also spend hours to analyze them before and after the games finished, register all these data in one file to be able to keep track of my bets and use it in the future.

I am also convinced about my skills to find a significant amount of big values all year long. I really took a significant step last year finding the perfect list of criteria to check for each game. This model has been tested on more than 1 000 bets and is now mature enough to start winning a significant amount of money in a constant way.

My methodology of betting

My methodology of betting is slightly different from professional companies like Smartodds and Starlizard. 

In fact I do not find any fun in selecting many bets per day with only a small value. And as I said already, betting is a true passion and I will not just start doing that even if it can bring me money.

It’s the same about following other tipsters. People make thousands of euros each month by following tipsters who master different sports. That’s the case of Steve from Daily25 and he is succeeding in an incredible way but this way of betting is just not me. I love that the bet I place comes from the hard work of analysis I do on my own. I also cannot bet on something I feel I do not master. The only way I could follow another tipster is sharing with him a special information on a game that I know would make a big difference.

But I love to share information and analysis with people in order to keep improving in my work and also to help them.

Still, I am achieving the same work concerning the analysis of each bet every day and for the days/weeks to come. I also try to cover the more leagues my time allows me to. I bet mostly on “Asian Handicap” market, which allows me to place thousands of euros on any kind of games using an Asian bet broker.

The big difference is that I bet only on games that have for me the highest value i.e. when I am 100% convinced about its outcome. This strategy makes me select a very limited number of bets every month.

Note that it does not mean I do not play for fun also sometimes. But when I do so, my stake represents a tiny percentage of my bankroll.

In the past I used to place my bets on niche market only but everything changed since I set up my own betting model beginning of 2019 and I am now able to cover any kind of league, even the big one like Bundesliga, Eredivisie or La Liga. 

My betting model

I have been betting for 10 years now, and I got to know a lot about how betting works and about myself in this special universe ! I know how well I am able to perform. And I know also everything that I do wrong.

Beginning of 2019, I used all this knowledge that I have accumulated through these years to define which common points had all the bets I won the most money on. And I did the same work on the most awful bets I placed.

This was a huge amount of work and it ended up with me creating my own betting model.

This model is a pretty simple one compared to those that professional companies are using. It does not use any complex mathematical algorithm aimed at computing thousands different types of data extracted from soccer databases covering 40 years of competition in Europe and worldwide.

My model is based on approximately 10 criteria and each of them has to be fulfilled to allow taking a bet.

90% of the criteria are easy and fast to determinate. If one is not in line with the requirements for a bet, it is directly taken out from the list. So when I start a Saturday morning with 100 games to analyze, already after a couple of hours there will be only 5% left to submit to the rest of the model criteria which require deeper analysis.

Each criterion is based on common sense for anyone that knows a minimum about sports but the force of my model lies on the exhaustiveness of the criteria I created that I believe allow covering every aspect of each game. 

I have experienced it in 2019 on thousands of games and the results have been far better than expected.

As every new model it had to be improved over the time, and after a great start I got bad runs. But this bad period did not make me want to forget about my model and instead it made me work even more to improve it. I spent hundreds of hours analyzing my losses, identifying in which part of the analysis I could have missed something that made me update some of the criteria.

And today I am sure that the current version of my model will allow me to get constant profit over the year allowing me to reach my long-term objectives !

Making this strategy a success means that I must have a high strike rate. But I have tested my model on thousands of games in 2019 and based on this experience I know that I can select several key games each month.

Having this in mind is priceless information that allows me keeping patience and discipline all over the year and thus prevents bad runs from drastically reducing the bankroll if combined with a strict staking strategy.

My new approach is to focus my betting on my model only to guide my betting decisions in a very strict way. This means spending 95% of the time in analyzing games each day and for the following weeks ; and only 5% in actually putting money at stake on games that fit all criteria.

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