Only a very limited percentage of gamblers are winners. The literature says that between 2 and 5 people out of 100 actually win money in the long term. So imagine the tiny percentage of people who are real professionals and win thousands of euros each month…
My ambition is to be a professional tipster.
I have defined very ambitious objectives. But I am certain that my experience, my skills in analyzing games and the efficiency of my model are the key that will make me reaching my goals.
To fulfill these objectives I am using an asian betting broker that allows me to get access to the best odds availablein the asian market (Pinnacle, Ibcbet, Sbobet, Singbet…) and also to be able to place thousands of euros on any bet.
Definition of my objectives
The definition of my objectives follows different steps that are detailed below:
1. Step 1: Definition of the bankroll
The first step is about deciding the amount of my initial bankroll. As you have heard ten thousand times, it shall be the amount that you are ready to lose.
I will be using a part of the profit I made from betting in 2019. My starting bankroll is 5 000 €.
2. Step 2: Staking management
The second step consists in defining the staking management to adopt.
I will stake 10% of my bankroll on bets selected by my model – so starting stake will be 500 € per bet. It means that I will return to 0 if I have a bad run of 10 losses in a row.
Usually people deal more often with 2 or 5% of their bankroll. But as we have seen earlier, they do have a totally different strategy of betting: they bet on games that even have a small value compared to the market. They bet on many games and are used to bad runs since they expect a small profit from a big turnover. And they never bet more than 5% of their bankroll even on the most confident match.
But from my experience with my model (few bets per month, high strike rate with improved model) it makes me confident to risk 10% on each of them.
I will also be betting a smaller percentage of my bankroll on other games that have a high value in my opinion but for which I don’t have all the information available to be compared with my model.
In very rare cases, I may increase my initial stake while the game is running (in-play betting) if each of the following conditions are met:
- My main bet (always asian handicap) has already passed or is voided.
- During my pre-game analysis I planed a bigger margin that the one of the curent score.
- The in-play is exactly matching the behavior I expected for this game (heavy domination, weakness of the underdogs, …).
For example: I analyse a game before it starts and I expect that my team wins 5 or 6-0. I have bet AH-2 pregame. Game is 2-0 at HT with a huge domination from my team. I may add a small percentage of my bankroll to my initial stake on line -1 in-play (-3 overall).
3. Step 3: Definition of the objectives
My first objective has always been the same: being profitable with betting. Being a part of the tiny percentage of people winning money betting. And achieve this while keeping it as a passion and as an activity I manage during my free time without affecting much my time with family and friends.
My second objective for 2020 is to generate a profit of 15 000 €.
Expecting to get 15 000 € a year means reaching a profit around 1 or 1.5 k€ every month. Starting from a 5 000 € bankroll this is consistent with my betting methodology and my staking plan.
|Month||Expected Bankroll (€)||Advised stake – 10% BK (€)||Expected Profit (€)||Expected global profit (€)|
|February||6 000||500||1 000||1 000|
|March||7 000||600||1 000||2 000|
|April||8 000||700||1 000||3 000|
|May||9 500||800||1 500||4 500|
|June||11 000||950||1 500||6 000|
|July||13 000||1 100||2 000||8 000|
|August||14 500||1 300||1 500||9 500|
|September||16 000||1 450||1 500||11 000|
|October||17 500||1 600||1 500||12 500|
|November||19 000||1 750||1 500||14 000|
|December||20 000||1 900||1 000||15 000|
The plan for the future is to double my profit every year: 30 000 € in 2021 ; 50 000 € in 2022.
The table below presents a view of my objective for the next 5 years: getting a bankroll of 200 000 €.
|Year||Expected profit (€)||Total profit (€)|
|2 020||15 000||15 000|
|2 021||30 000||45 000|
|2 022||50 000||95 000|
|2 023||50 000||145 000|
|2 024||50 000||195 000|
Below is shown the table I will update month by month to keep track of my results.