Archive for the ‘Picks’ Category

(08.08.2017) Hessen Kassel – Wolfsburg

Posted by Fabien On August - 8 - 2017

Tuesday the 08 of August 2017, 18:30
Soccer – Friendly game (club)
Hessen Kassel vs Wolfsburg

Long time I did not write something here J And I am very happy to start again. Hope with some wins this time because it has been a while since I didn’t share good picks with you. I did not change the amount of analysis I achieve for each bet I propose you but I have been missing some key points in some games that should not have deserved a high stake. I truly believe that sharing this analysis with you will help. So let’s start it now!

Hessen Kassel is an average team of Regionalliga, which is the level 4th in German leagues system.
They already started their season (2 games) and had a good start with a win against one of the best team last year (Mannheim) and played only 2 days ago suffering a defeat at Saarbrücken (3-1). They will play in only 4 days a game at home against a though opponent (Stuttgart II): For sure players will be motivated to meet a Bundesliga team but coach will rotate a lot at the start or at least during the game knowing the important games to come.
They met Borussia M’gladbach last year at the same period (beginning of august) and lost 1-6. They played offensive and created several good attempts especially in first half but their defense was too weak and they conceded many goals. It was the 2nd game in 2 days for BM’ and for sure motivation and shape were not the best. They met other teams from Bundesliga in the past: Hamburg SV losing 0-2 in 2015 (big domination by Hamburg but Hamburg was in the middle of their preseason and Kassel didn’t start the season so had only this game in mind which means no rotation); 1-4 Dortmund in 2014 (first game of the preseason for Dortmund, big change from Dortmund at HT: 1-0 HT 1-4 FT). In addition of this, they will miss one important defender for tonight: Lucas Albrecht.

Wolfsburg is a well-known team from Bundesliga, the highest division in German leagues system. They did not make a great season last year because of economic problems with Volkswagen but they should be a good average team in Bundesliga this season. They kept almost all their best players and manage to integrate some good new ones too.
Their preseason has been good until now (7 games, 4 wins). They showed a good ability to score goals (9 goals). Last 2 games have been defats against Newcastle and Fiorentina but they made a good display, having many chances to score. They have a good potential in attack including Mario Gomez and Ntep. They got a young power new player coming from Oostende (19 years old) which is already missed a lot by its previous team.

This game is the last before Wolfsburg starts the season and they need to get confidence so for sure they will be focus to make a good display by winning and scoring goals.
They meet the perfect opponent tonight: a very weak team at amateur level which played two days ago and whose trainer will have their next championship game in mind so will rotate a lot.

I am confident Wolfsburg will win this one by at least 4 goals margin. That’s why I propose you this bet today.

Bet on Wolfsburg -2,5 @1.97 on Sbobet

Result: 0-2 FT Lost


Part 2: Sharing my picks

Posted by Fabien On April - 9 - 2016

Sharing my own picks with you has always been something I enjoyed a lot. The results in the long run have been incredible (see this section) and I receive tons of positive feedbacks from you (see “Members opinion” section) which pushed me to keep working hard on the blog spending much time on it in addition to my own betting and my full time job.

You can take a look at the analyses I shared on my website here. In the past the main bookmaker I used was Bet365 because of the number of leagues they cover. But there are more and more restrictions in some countries which prevent punters from betting on European bookmakers with very nice offer like Bet365 or William Hill. That led many tipsters to place bets with accounts from others (often buying accounts from other people living abroad) in order to keep possibility to place money on these websites. I don’t like this way of proceeding that’s why I concentrate on Asian market (Ibcbet, Pinnacle, Sbobet, …) which is available to anybody (but many people think that they can not win money in the long run because the offer is smaller).

Anyway, the bets I share are available on both European and Asian markets so it will be not problem for you to follow my picks.

Note that after I post a bet on the website, the odds can be much affected that’s why I propose a minimum odds (below this odds, a bet is not recommended – you shall wait live betting to get the minimum odds).

Why am I not sharing every bet I take

As I said above, each bet I share with you has a significant impact on the market and it can lead the odds to crash heavy before game starts. Even in play it can takes a long period of time before value comes back.

Sharing all my bets with you will lead to kill market on games / teams / championships I am used to bet on which is bad for you and me in the long run.

Then don’t be surprise to get only one or two bets a month. I will try to share the best of my own betting in order for you to keep winnings by following my tips ;)

Why I will not run a paid service

The picks I will share in this section will be free for any visitor of the website. I decided not to run a paid service for 3 reasons.

The first one is that I do not need this money. I already have my full-time job salary and my own betting winnings.

Second reason is that it requires a lot of time to manage the service (payment, newsletter, …) and a lot of availability I don’t have at the moment.

2 ways of sharing picks

There will be 2 ways of getting my tips:

First way is my website. Picks that will be shared here will be provided with deep analysis and I will explain the main reasons. It will be pre-game bets (available about 10 minutes before kick-off to get the last info the game like line-ups and weather). I will share on twitter when an analysis is available on the website.

The second way will be twitter. I may post some picks on twitter without analysis ; it will be live betting only.

SBV Excelsior – Volendam (19.04.2013)

Posted by Fabien On April - 19 - 2013

SBV Excelsior – Volendam
Holland Jupiler League
19.04.2013 at 20:00

Three matches remaining before the end of the season in Jupiter League.
Volendam is the best team in the league : they are about to end at the top of the league with the best attack (64 goals), mean of 3.8 goals per game and 17 wins in 27 games.
They easily won their last game versus the number 3 in the league by 3 goals difference taking a good advantage on the promotion.
Today they have only 2 points more than the second of the league so the win is a must against Excelsior. Then they know they will have to be focus until the end. That is what they did against Eindhoven which is also a team from the bottom: they managed to win easily 0-2 even if they played a slow football during the first half. I expect the same kind of game today with a home team which will have nothing to play for and will create more space on the field.
The team has one suspension for this game: a key defender H. Schilder who played all game this season.

Today they face Excelsior that will probably finish at the same place they are today : at the 15th position, only 3 points more than FC Eindhoven.
For this game, Excelsior will miss:
– Rick Kruijs (key player who get injured in the game against FC Den Bosch. After this game, Excelsior conceded 6 goals in two games: 4-2 defeat versus Fortuna Excelsior 7th in the league with one of the worst attack of the league, and 2-0 defeat against FC Oss who scored 28 goals less than Volendam).
– Matthew Steenvoorden (cautioned and most important defender of the club, injured in last game),
– Richard Stolte (injured and 13 appearances this season),
– Erwin Nuytinck, Daan Smith and Dennis den Haan (young and inexperimented).

Excelsior had many problems in defense during last games while the key defender Matthew S. was playing..
Today they will play one of their last game in the league this season and they will have nothing to show that good football and enjoy playing the best team of the league in front of their fans.

I expect a lot of goals tonight in an open game with probably both teams scoring but I expect Volendam to score more than 3 goals.

SBV Excelsior – Volendam
Volendam -1 @1.90 on Bet365
Over 3.25 @1.85 on Bet365
Over 3.5 @2.13 on Bet365

1-3 FT

Highlights of the game :

Afghanistan – Bhutan (07.12.11)

Posted by Fabien On December - 7 - 2011

Soccer – SAFF Championship
Afghanistan – Bhutan
07.12.11 at 10:30

The last game for this group in the SAFF Championship. Afghanistan will fight for the first place.
During their first game they drew with India (1-1) and they created some very good opportunities to take the lead and they won easily against Sri Lanka 3-1 !

It is the third game in a few days for Bhutan and players are getting more and more tired.. For their first game against Sri Lanka the score was only 3-0 but it should have been something like 5-0 easily.. For the second game they have been beaten by India 5-0 with 3 goals disallowed for India..

Knowing that we saw since a few days that Afghanistan is one favorite for this group and they have a strong squad with a good attack line, we could expect at least 4 goals here, like in the other games..

Bet :

Afghanistan -3 @1.975 on Bet365

Result : Afghanistan – Bhutan : 8-1 FT

Highlights :

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Sri Lanka – Bhutan (03.12.11)

Posted by Fabien On December - 7 - 2011

Soccer – SAFF Championship
Sri Lanka – Bhutan
03.12.11 at 13:00

Today, Sri Lanka faces the weakest team of the group : Bhutan. In the past, Bhutan got so many bad results. In 2009 during the AFC Championship they have been defeated 3 times against Philippines (1-0), Turkmanistan (7-0) and Maldives (5-0) which are not powerful teams. In December 2009, they have performed very bad during the SAFF Championship loosing 3 times, scoring only one goal and conceding 17 goals (4-1 against Bangladesh, 6-0 Sri Lanka, 7-0 Pakistan).
In 2011, their friendly games against Nepal may let us think that they became a better team. They lost 1-0 and 2-1 two days later.. So we could think that Bhutan is became a strong team now.. But then they faced Afghanistan for an official game (AFC CC) and they lost 0-3 and 2-0, two games that Afghanistan won very easily and during which Bhutan never looked dangerous. Afghanistan should clearly have scored several goals more.. This game and the report I have read about it tell us that Bhutan skills didn’t improved and they still are the same weakest team that they have been until now..
Bhutan scored only one time in their 8 last official games.. Last time they scored it was a penalty just before the half time.. The fact that they lost only by one goal against Nepal can be explained by the fact that the squad of Nepal should have been not concerned and motivated by this game without any interest for them.

Sri Lanka is not the strongest team of the group, maybe the second weakest team even. But taking a look to their result, we can see that they have a good defence and managed to score several goals evey game against weakest opponents.

Today we can expect Sri Lanka win this one very easily by at least 3 goals difference without conceding.
However I prefer that you wait until the handicap for Sri Lanka becames “Sri Lanka -2”.


Sri Lanka Clean Sheet @1.72
Sri Lanka -2 @1.925 [Live 8th min : 0-0]

Result : Sri Lanka – Bhutan : 3-0 FT

Highlights :

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